I continue my Innovation in Compliance series today by discussing “superforecasting” and its use by a compliance function. Imagine that as a Chief Compliance Officer (CCO), you could create a team ...

It's hard to see what the future holds, but Superforecasting gives a clearer picture than most other forecasting techniques. There’s an essay by the philosopher Isaiah Berlin called ‘The Hedgehog and ...

We all crave knowledge of the future. Is it going to rain this weekend? Where will the equity markets be in a year? Next week? Five minutes from now? Predictive models, many using big data and ...

In 2010, Dan Gardner published Future Babble, a fascinating look at the often dodgy business of expert predictions. Much of the scientific core of the book was derived from the research of Philip ...

SUPERFORECASTING: The Art and Science of Prediction. By Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. Crown. 340 pages. $28. Everyone’s a forecaster. Is Clemson a national title contender? Can we plan on ...

The President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo was having a stressful time in 2013. A rebel militia had just taken control of Goma, a large province with a population of about a million people, ...